Influenza Observations and Forecast

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  • Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health
Flu Observations and Forecast

Using an algorithm similar to those used in weather prediction, the lab publishes weekly flu forecasts for 50 states, 10 CDC regions, and 108 cities nationwide, predicting how and when cases will rise and fall. They pull together multiple datasets: CDC reports, lab reports of patients who've tested positive for influenza (drawn from a pool of WHO data), and Google search activity. The algorithm simulates flu-transmission dynamics using data from past flu seasons and produces the real-time forecasts of future flu outcomes based on the new information. The results have been published weekly since 2013.


Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) ILINet weekly regional reports of influenza like illness (ILI), WHO/NREVSS collaborating laboratory influenza positive tests and Google search activity.